Prospects for a Statistical Theory of LC/TOFMS Data

The critical importance of employing sound statistical arguments when seeking to draw inferences from inexact measurements is well-established throughout the sciences. Yet fundamental statistical methods such as hypothesis testing can currently be applied to only a small subset of the data analytical problems encountered in LC/MS experiments. The means of inference that are more generally employed are based on a variety of heuristic techniques and a largely qualitative understanding of their behavior. In this article, we attempt to move towards a more formalized approach to the analysis of LC/TOFMS data by establishing some of the core concepts required for a detailed mathematical description of the data. Using arguments that are based on the fundamental workings of the instrument, we derive and validate a probability distribution that approximates that of the empirically obtained data and on the basis of which formal statistical tests can be constructed. Unlike many existing statistical models for MS data, the one presented here aims for rigor rather than generality. Consequently, the model is closely tailored to a particular type of TOF mass spectrometer although the general approach carries over to other instrument designs. Looking ahead, we argue that further improvements in our ability to characterize the data mathematically could enable us to address a wide range of data analytical problems in a statistically rigorous manner.